#MEwx Possible Snows Mid & Late Week

Taking a glance at models shows the idea of some possible snow for the region this week. The Alberta Clipper Express continues as several weak ones drop down from Ontario & Quebec, most of which may not bring much of anything, however one this Wednesday may stir up some snow over much of the region. Friday may bring more widespread and heavier snow to the area as well.

Wednesday Clipper

Monday 12z NAM at 1 PM Wednesday

Monday 12z NAM at 1 PM Wednesday

This screenshot is that of the North American Model (NAM) at 1 PM Wednesday from this morning’s run. While it shows light snow activity by the lighter shades of green, the concern here is the two 1012mb low pressure systems in close proximity to one another. It shows a transfer of energy as a once stronger system over Ontario weakens as it travels east. This sets up the possibility of a coastal low forming which aided by the moisture over the Gulf of Maine may cause a bit of precipitation generation. In the very next frame after this, it shows 2-4″ of snow falling over Down East Maine along Washington County. Any deviation in track further south and timing may push some of that moisture further south toward the Mid-Coast. Model guidance all around suggests the mountains may benefit here with some upslope snow conditions which may give them an inch or two of powder. It’s a good chance all will see at least a few flakes from this, but at this point this does not appear to be an accumulation event.

Friday Potential Storm

12z ECMWF at 7 PM Friday

12z ECMWF at 7 PM Friday

Friday is a bit of a mystery for the moment as model guidance is not in much agreement. Presented here is the ECMWF (Euro) models look at the potential storm. It should be noted here right off the top that the Euro is the outlier compared to other models right now, meaning it is different from all of the others. In the graphic above, there are two High pressure systems that are putting a “block” on in the atmosphere. The Euro has been showing this idea for a few days now. This is going to force two sources of energy delivered in by the convergence of the northern jet stream and the southern jet.

12z ECMWF at 1 PM Friday

12z ECMWF at 1 PM Friday

This graphic shows the two jets and energy with them just before they unite together at around 7 PM Friday night. If the timing of this is correct, it could end up being a strong storm. This is NOT a prediction that it will happen. The Euro has been riding this solution for a few days now, and the trend of late is more of a southeastern one. The GFS/CMC/UKMet/NOGAPS are NOT in agreement here, so confidence is LOW for now. That said, the Euro has had a pretty decent streak of storm prediction recently, and based on that, this solution cannot be dismissed.

The consensus for now is that ALL of the models do agree in principle to a snow event here on Friday, and it does appear that the coast  and foothills will see it’s fair share, and the mountains stand to gain as well. But exact amounts and timing of the snowfall is not clear. Hopefully the models will start their own convergence in the next 12 to 24 hours on this potential event. Stay tuned.

A 45-year Mainer discussing & forecasting weather for the western half of the Pine Tree State. Former sports media & community relations specialist.

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Posted in NorEaster

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